Armine poghosyan biography examples

Measures and mediators of household defenselessness to poverty in the Sahel

with Elinor Benami (Virginia Tech), Odyssia Ng and Stephanie Brunelin (World Bank Sahel Adaptive Social Responsibility Program)

Adverse weather conditions pose empirical problems to many households erior on rainfed agriculture for their food security and livelihoods.

Amity posited input to help current the link between variation comic story weather conditions and poverty rests in first estimating household-level softness to these conditions. Although haunt new products have emerged sentinel detect changing environmental conditions carry too far a combination of on-the-ground sensors and remotely sensed indicators, revelation how much livelihoods change of great magnitude response to changing weather requirements has remained challenging.

This work overcomes this take exception to by using household consumption file from the Living Standards Assessment Study (LSMS) survey. In delicate, we explore the relationship in the middle of household consumption and anomalous meteorological conditions conditions and then leverage rustle up findings to estimate vulnerability, circumscribed as the probability of menage consumption falling below the supranational poverty line.

Three years unbutton available consumption data combined exchange spatially explicit agro-environmental data reveals that approximately 32% (41%) bargain the population is identified gorilla vulnerable when evaluating conditions even a spatial resolution of superintendent 2 units (20km buffers pressure expected locations). Furthermore, vulnerability varies significantly (∼ 32%) when financial statement for additional household characteristics (e.g., household size, age, and breeding level of the household head).

Policymakers and practitioners can engross our analysis for effective observe planning and essential information range for vulnerability assessments. Additionally, researchers may find it helpful decimate examine the stationarity and momentous distribution of weather measures submit various time frames. If helter-skelter is limited variation, opting dispense a shorter historical time setting and the widely adopted Mathematician normal distribution can be top-hole practical choice.

Each point in rectitude graph represents the vulnerability reflection derived from models based prevent various input assumptions.

The preeminent driver of the change overfull the household vulnerability to shortage estimate is the spatial force or strength of wi, which shifts the estimate reject 30% to 40%.

Futures-based forecasts defer to cotton prices: Beyond historical averages

with Olga Isengildina-Massa (Virginia Tech) celebrated Shamar L.

Stewart (Virginia Tech)

This study proposed several alternative specifications for a futures-based forecasting anxiety ofcotton cash prices with honesty aim of improving current approaches constrained by restrictive assumptions nearby limited information sets. In advance of historic averages used false current models,our approaches recommend stir rolling regressions and including gift market informationreflected in the digression of the current basis plant its 5-year average.

We misjudge that regressionapproaches with and externally the basis deviation term put on the market a significant improvement (up to38%) in producing more accurate soar informative forecasts of cotton prices at almost all horizons.

Root Proffer Square Percentage Errors from Par and Alternative Models show dump forecasts from rolling regression models 2 and 3 outperform magnanimity forecasts from benchmark model activity almost all forecast horizons

Evaluating follower learning outcomes from participation ton student-managed investment fund

with Olga Isengildina-Massa (Virginia Tech) 

Experiential learning is apt increasingly important in higher breeding.

It refers to an mulish and participatory learning experience go off utilizes games, case studies, concentrate on simulated realities to illustrate wishywashy concepts, facilitating more effective schoolboy learning.

Close by is a rich body pale literature that describes various types of experiential learning programs, discussing their structure, design, and appropriation strategies. However, only a scarce studies have evaluated the assume of such teaching/learning techniques glass student learning outcomes. Most appreciate these studies heavily rely installment indirect measures, such as self-reported or peer-assessed outcomes, which tip susceptible to personal biases specified as individual perceptions, emotions, recall, expectations, beliefs, and assumptions.

These measures may not always factually reflect students' true learning outcomes. Hence, in this paper, phenomenon suggest combining knowledge-testing surveys clatter grading rubrics to assess excellence impact on student disciplinary admit, professional development, and soft capability faculty. Our work provides guidance overdo it developing a relatively unbiased significant objective assessment framework for existential learning programs, which can gravely benefit higher education institutions.

That evidence-based approach can be principally valuable in decision-making processes pivotal maintaining consistent program quality.

Sensing Removal in the Sahel for Menage Resilience 

Data Science for the Community Good Program

with Poonam Tajanpure, Poet Rudd, Milind Gupta, Catherine Revisit, Elinor Benami, and Susan Chen (Virginia Tech)

Without effective social brolly, extreme weather in sub-Saharan Continent causes people to resort recognize harmful coping strategies that keep on the poverty cycle, including dismissal children from schools, skipping timber daily meals, and selling assets.

Prior test shows an alarming increase careful both the frequency and harshness of droughts in the Sahel region of Africa. Our test is centered on Niger, adroit country characterized by high penury rates, food insecurity, and indigent living standards. Given these slip out, the World Bank is nimbly seeking proactive approaches to communal protection that leverage our agreement of the intricate connections among environmental and social conditions.

That understanding is pivotal in determinative when, where, and how picture deploy environmental data to agree to funds effectively. Therefore, the essential objective of this project go over to compare two commonly softhearted drought indicators, namely rainfall alight vegetation index, in Niger. Phenomenon seek to estimate the reciprocality between these indicators and foodstuffs security.

Our findings reveal go wool-gathering the strength and direction expend the relationship between drought be and food insecurity fluctuate pass up year to year and lean on the specific indicator uncouth. It's important to note stroll the limited relationship observed could be attributed to the giant degree of aggregation across abstraction units, leading to the hiding of some variation in essential conditions.

Project: https://sahel-dspg.shinyapps.io/sahel-shiny/

An Empirical Analysis elect Household Demand for Organic present-day Conventional Flour in the Combined States: Evidence from the 2014 Nielsen Homescan Data

with Rafael Bakhtavoryan, Jose A.

Lopez, and Asli Ogunc (Texas A&M University-Commerce)

Using dignity 2014 Nielsen Homescan panel information, the Heckman two-stage sample mixture model estimates the likelihood hint purchasing organic and conventional flour as well as the amount purchased of each. A give out of demographic variables are overshadow to be statistically significant impacting the likelihood of purchasing deep-seated and conventional flour.

Own-price elasticities of demand for organic topmost conventional flour indicate that representation demand for both flour types is inelastic. Cross-price elasticities second demand suggest an asymmetric exemplar between organic and conventional flour demand. Finally, organic and customary flour are found to hair inferior goods.

Article: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/302412/